Reading your own result honestly

You already know how to interrogate a measurement — this is the same discipline applied to a result you have an emotional stake in, which makes it considerably harder.

Four ways your number is too high

Selection. You contacted the people most likely to say yes, because they were easiest to reach. Almost everybody does this.

Politeness. Some fraction agreed to end the conversation gracefully. Watch for anybody who committed instantly without asking a single question.

Novelty. Interest in a new thing is not sustained demand. A pilot signup is a real signal about this month, not about month seven.

Your presence. People buy from an enthusiastic person in front of them. If the product has to sell itself later, you have measured yourself rather than it.

Discount your own result

Go through your yeses and mark any that show a tell: an instant commitment with no questions, somebody who already knew and liked you, anybody who has not actually parted with anything yet.

Recompute your conversion with those removed. That second number is the one to plan with.

Discounted conversion rate

Surviving yeses as a percentage of the twelve asked. Compare it to your raw figure and to your prediction.

Argue the other side

Make the strongest possible case that your verdict is wrong — whichever way it went.

Write the verdict down before you act on it

One page: the ask, the twelve, the result, your discount, and the condition that would change your mind. Dated. You will want it in three months when you have started remembering the weekend more favourably than it went.